I didn't want to start the article with such a harsh judgment, but sometimes it feels like the thing that should be said at the end needs to be said at the beginning: Turkey seems to be drifting towards a dead end with no visible way out, towards a thick darkness! After nearly a quarter century of AK Party rule, it looks like Recep Tayyip Erdogan's first physical or political stumble will mark the end of this era. Despite all this time and the enormous state power they've accumulated, this structure – which never really evolved beyond a "leader's party" in the Eastern style – will likely take its place on the dusty shelves of history with the next election, or shortly after. Of course, for those over 45-50, an uninterrupted 25-year single-party rule was something you could only dream of, especially in a country like Turkey with its active fault lines and history of coups. The fact that a cadre that appeared conservative or somehow conservative/traditionalist managed to pull this off was the most interesting sociological aspect of it all. We say "was," because now, for any mind reading the reality, using the past tense for this magnificent period is the most appropriate choice.
So, if we consider the right-wing conservative perspective, what could possibly be the reasons for such pessimism? After all, the right-wing press writes almost every day, column after column, about how Turkey has leapfrogged into a new era with its national defense drones, UAVs, new inventions, weapons and technologies, how it's crushing its enemies, and how a "grand Turkish century" awaits us with everything turning out rosy. I'm sorry, but those who write these things seem to be serving the purpose of grabbing a share of the pool media's advertising pie, getting closer to the ruling circles, and, on a personal level, gaining titles and, so to speak, finding their way. In this state of affairs, there is no brave soul to say "the emperor has no clothes," and there is probably no authority that would listen and take heed even if there were. Because a country cannot fully progress just by strengthening its defense industry. That is already an indispensable component of securing your geography. The old saying, "If you desire peace, prepare for war," is a very practical and highly effective formula for countries like us situated in a geopolitical fire ring. To be fair, no one before the AK Party took this issue as seriously as they did, so they deserve congratulations, and if possible, we should hope for its continuation. However, there are two important points that should not be forgotten here.
First: A weapon you develop by spending billions of dollars in capital and think will keep your enemy awake at night can become useless overnight if the other side introduces a new technology with even just one superior parameter through a technological leap. If only the current cadres approached all their work with the same effort and seriousness they show for national defense! But unfortunately, when we look at the economic and social sphere, we see that the situation is far from bright; on the contrary, we see a structure that is rotting from the inside.
Second, and this one seems more dire and inevitable than the first: Once the government changes, these massive investments, inventions, and weapons will at least be ignored, and perhaps even written off... And when we look at our history, it's hard not to feel a sense of dread that this will actually happen!
Historical Cycles and Fractures: A Nation's Repeating Fate
Adding historical depth to the issue is essential for understanding today's trajectory. In our lands, especially over the last 200-250 years, power changes and regime transformations have always been very sharp, destructive, and full of ups and downs. From the Ottoman period, starting from the 1800s when the footsteps of collapse were clearly heard, the events that made it into the history books also mirror today's destiny:
The Janissaries start their tyranny, Sultan Selim III is martyred; Sultan Mahmud II dismantles the Janissary corps, which had become a den of sedition; Sultan Abdulaziz is martyred; the Western-enchanted Young Turks (Jon Turks) begin to organize seriously; the Russians advance all the way into Istanbul. Then Sultan Abdulhamid II arrives, and the state, which was on the verge of collapse, rises again in a way no one could have predicted, the nation breathes, and after serving his country with all his might for 33 years, the Caliph is deposed in a manner completely unbefitting of a 600-year-old state and its traditions. This event is actually one of the biggest fractures in our history, because the trajectory afterwards, despite occasional periods of relief and rise, has been consistently downward. With the beginning of the 20th century, the country enters a great crisis; massive territorial losses, massacres, and then, under the short-sighted Committee of Union and Progress (Ittihad ve Terakki), the devastating outcome of the First World War and the last Caliph of Islam, expelled from his own ancestral state! Following that, the Ottoman geography is completely plundered; wherever the Ottoman Empire existed, the British installed their own puppets and administrations. While the country was increasingly becoming a third-rate banana republic imitation of North Korea under a single-party regime, Adnan Menderes emerges out of nowhere, and Muslims experience relative relief. However, the ill fate of these lands doesn't change, and Prime Minister Menderes is executed. After every situation that seems like "normalization," the military shows its stick and seizes control. Then, just when everything seems over, a brave soul like Turgut Ozal emerges, opens the country's borders, and with very fine politics, partially rescues the nation from the internal dinosaurs. Then things get tangled again, 28 February (post-modern coup of February 28, 1997) happens, and then, in a turnout and duration that wouldn't be believed even in a dream, the AK Party achieves a 25-year rule. There are many more events that have occurred, but in conclusion, even if we just look at the summary of the summary, the differences between the rises and falls are sharper and bloodier than what many states and civilizations have ever experienced in their history. As the late Kadir Mısıroğlu put it: "We hold the record both in rising and in falling!"
So what does this historical truth show us? The sharper and longer the internal fractures, the more the wind, when it turns, creates a swing in the opposite direction with almost the same intensity, and sometimes even more intensely. For 25 years, thanks to Erdogan's strong stance and refusal to back down, so much stress has accumulated in the faction that has internalized everything, failed to get the result they wanted every time they tried, and has, one way or another, problems with the People's Party and Islam, that even if the government change appears to happen through an official procedure like an election, this transition will not be painless or easy. Therefore, the second it becomes clear, for any reason, that the AK Party's, or more precisely Erdogan's, leadership is ending, if Allah does not have mercy on this nation – and in this state, it doesn't seem to deserve mercy – a great collapse awaits us. From the right wing, there doesn't seem to be a new, unifying, and strong leader on the horizon either.
General Moral Decay and the Situation of the Youth
Now, let's add the current state of the nation to this grim picture: A dry crowd, consisting of hedonistic and arrogant people who think of nothing but their carnal desires, stomachs, and pleasures! Individuals who are forced to mix in crowded places like workplaces and schools and maintain a certain level of decorum, revert to their true nature as soon as they find an opportunity to inflate their egos. It's impossible to spend 5-10 minutes outside nowadays without encountering rude, shameless, foul-mouthed youth! It doesn't matter if it's a village, town, or city. Schools and universities are filled with people chasing base desires, ignorant, unable to see ahead, ungrateful, and far from appreciating what they have. There's no need to even mention the bankruptcy of the so-called "national" education system. Indeed, for a long time, the government has been feeding, with its own budget, the cadres that will become its enemies, and releasing them into the wild, completely empty!
On the other hand, the destructive speed of the internet and social media continues hand-in-hand with the corruption of the youth and their downward spiral. Therefore, it's as clear as day that the government's unsupported, bland, and hollow "religious generation" project has completely collapsed! The youth have flown far, far away from Islam and the authentic Ahl al-Sunnah creed, are quite distant from the country's history and stance, spend their time entertaining their egos, and don't seem likely to put their hands under the stone anytime soon. In this situation, seeing that a general decline in population seems poised to engulf our geography, one honestly can't decide whether to be happy or sad!
The Conservative Who Sees Money, Can He Stay "Conservative"?
Another indicator and, to a significant extent, perpetrator of the downward spiral is: our conservative! The Turkish conservative, who strives to pull himself and his generation together, to learn and practice his religion as the pressure on him increases, as we have seen many examples of, generally fails the test when faced with money and status. For example, think of the right-wing voters who supported the AK Party in the early period... Most of them are a generation that experienced revolutions, the "coup-filled" 28 February process, but also have the maturity and gratitude to appreciate what they have. But when you add the second generation raised by the hot money flow and economic relief of the AK Party's early period, the corruption immediately starts to show itself. We already touched upon the generation after that.
Lack of Leadership and Guidance
Let's come to one of our most ancient problems: the shortage of "real men" (kaht-i ridjal) on the right-wing! This black calamity, inherited from the time of Sultan Abdulmajid, just won't leave us and seems to have no solution. Think of a 25-year rule that, during its tenure, failed to produce a single embodied character who could give the youth a horizon, guide them, make them love their magnificent history, instill a thousand years of Anatolian culture, and nurture national consciousness... Despite all the opportunities, universities, and funds! The vast majority of those who appear on the scene are only concerned with getting through the day and filling their pockets. The idealists are either lumped together with the others, give up early, or retreat into seclusion, saying "nothing will come of these people." It's also very clear that such a movement cannot succeed with hollow, bombastic rhetoric that isn't followed up on the ground. Moreover, when you consider this infallible formula, accepting reality, no matter how painful, becomes easier: "As you are, so shall you be ruled!"
Conclusion: Anatomy of a Bankruptcy
When historical cycles, economic vulnerabilities, and sociological erosion come together, it becomes clear that Turkey is on the verge of a deep crisis that cannot be overcome simply by a change of political party. This crisis requires not only the judgment of the current government but also of the country's fundamental dynamics and social values. If a radical change in mindset does not occur in light of these in-depth analyses, Turkey's future holds the potential to be a much more violent repetition of the painful experiences of the past. The humiliations inflicted upon Sultans Abdulaziz, Abdulhamid, and Vahiduddin, and the lingering grievances they left behind, strengthen the signs that the consequences of the temporary relief during the AK Party period will be very heavy.
